Big Dick Part 2

As I was saying a move to AT&T park will only help Johnson and it's not unreasonable to expect his era to dip lower to around 3.7-3.8 and thats a fairly conservative assumption to make. Because it's clear this helps us from a win now perspective let's look at the financial side as well as the future implications. 

The only thing that stings is that Johnson is slated to make 8 million dollars guarenteed I was under the assumption that a one year 6 million guarentee with say 2.5 million in incentives would get the deal done because Johnson is from Walnut Creek he's no longer a 10 million dollar a year pitcher (which he could make with bonus incentives) and the fact that he's 45 led me to believe 6 million dollars is generous enough to grant to a 46 year old pitcher. However, Johnson will undoutebly bring in large streams of revenues from merchandise sales and ticket sales. He will be a huge draw due to the fact that not only is he from nearby Walnut Creek but he also five wins shy of 300 wins in his illustrious hall of fame career and will most likely be pitching his final season all leads me to believe that he could actually come close to paying off his contract. 

When it comes down to it, this makes a ton of sense for the Giants, it gives them probably the best rotation in the NL West (future post) and perhaps the entire national league. Johnson is signed to a one year deal and will not block either Alderson, Bumgarner when there ready and propels this team from probable division contender to a team that strikes fear in Tommy Lasorda's heart. 

I'm Back In Time To Welcome ...........

The "Big Unit" to San Francisco! Wait what? Let's break this down like a cardboard box......... We now have a rotation featuring 3 former cy young awards, (which will later on become a trivia question down the road.) But trivia aside was this a good use of Hamilton's for our beloved San Francisco Giants?

Our rotation now sounds like a fantasy baseball melodrama with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Johnson and the other guy........ZITO. That gives us the potential to be as strong 1-5 as any other team in the league because even as much as we all "strongly dislike" Mr. Zito he's still an above average #5 starter albeit one that pulls in 18 million dollars per year. There has been some scuttlebut going around the baseball world saying Johnson "fell off" his last album unlike Dr. Dre wasn't the chronic (sorry i had to) at the same time of course he isn't the 97 mph fastball slider that makes you want to cry dymano at age 45. But, he can still throw 89-93 touching 94 with good tilt on the old breaking piece and a decent splitter. And according to ESPN's Keth Law he struck out 22.4% of opposing batters last year which was well above league average. 

Lat year Johnson went 11-10 with a below average league era of 3.91 and 173 k's. In the very hitter friendly Chase Field. Also remember the league average era was 4.32 for starting pitchers last year. What else is great is Johnson has developed impecable control as he has gotten older and only walked 41 batters of 181 innings last year which leads to a 4.2:1 k/bb rate. A move to AT&T park should only help his numbers to because Johnson has become a fly ball pitcher due to the fact that he's lost tilt on his slider and zip on his fastball which he has always thrown up in the zone anyway...................bed-time part 2 tommorow 

I'll take suggestions

to what people want me to write about. Open to all of baseball not only the Giants also I'm going to have a new column in which I answer the Giants mailbag on Monday's to

NL WEST DREAM TEAM

Hello everyone, it's Henry comming at you live on Monday morning from my room I'm sick so I'm obviously not at school. Without further ado let me propose to you my NL WEST dream team! I came up with this idea while talking to our very own Micheal Mcclure. This team should be built to win now and in the future you can fill out 1 25 man roster however you want. 

C- Russel Marrtin Chris Ianetta CO

1b. Adrian Gonzalez SD

2b. Emmanuel Burris Sf 

SS.Troy Tulowitzki CO, Stephen Drew AZ

3b.Kevin Kouzmanoff SD, Ian Stewart CO

1f.Connor Jackson AZ, Fred Lewis SF 

Cf. Matt Kemp LA, Chris Young AZ

rf.Justin Upton AZ, Andre Eithier LA

SP.Tim Lincecum SF

SP.Brandon Webb AZ

SP.Clayton Kershaw LA

SP.Matt Cain SF

SP.Chad Billingsley LA

RP.Manny Corpas CO 

RP.Huston Street CO

RP.John Broxton LA  

RP.Hong-Chi Kuo LA

RP.Alex Hinshaw SF

RP.Sergio Romo SF

CP.Brian Wilson SF

 

Thats all she wrote! for right now folks either way, I'll make a minor league dream team NL west style to make us feel better. I also encourage other fans to make ones of their own divisions (cough, cough J AL west?) And yes I had a few biased picks but there's also no good 2b in the Nl West

C.C Sabathia and Sharks

Welcome everyone to the latest blog post on Brian Sabean's Successor today's topic you ask.......? What better than C.C Sabathia! But rather than pure speculation we now have very valid reason to believe the Giants are preparing to open their wallets and let those Hamilton's free. According to our friend Andrew Baggarly who said according to Tony Jackson Giants officials are extremely confident there going to sign  Sabathia. Now, where do we go from here......

Before you Say Lincecum, Sabathia, Cain and the other two (Sanchez.........Zito) sound all peachy think about this. Let's say we sign Sabathia to a six year 120 million dollar deal. Zito would still have 5 years and 98 million dollars left and Rowans with 4 years 48 million. So we would still be paying Zito and Rowand a combined 30 million dollars over the next 4 seasons add Sabathia to your tab and your on the hook for 3 players making 50 million dollars a year or in other words half of your payroll. Or in other words you would have 8% of your roster earning approximatley 53% of your payroll assuming it's around 95 million a year. I say don't sign Sabathia in all caps. The Giants have already made two "Giant" mistakes it's best to led the contracts bleed out over the years than try to salvage them by making another mega-deal. But let's say you must sign Sabathia let's say Sabean decides it's the best way to keep his job while also trying to improve ticket sales this is what you should do. 

Trade Rowand as soon as possible and get rid of the remaining 48 million dollars. (He has a partial no trade clause this year don't know to which teams though) Trade him for anything you can find, if you want a true center fielder in return swap him for Brian Anderson as mentioned in previous articles but due to the Giants log jam in the outfield I say trade him for a bullpen arm: D.J Carassco and a polished low ceiling arm like Adam Russel. This way it would essentially be like signing Sabathia to a 6 year 72 million dollar contract.  This way you would have Sabathia and Zito making 30 million dollars a year as opposed to Zito and Rowand still not pretty but this duo would be much more productive. 

Suppose you take the philosophy of "Let's trade Sanchez for a young high ceiling bat" (which I wouldn't) but let's say you do. You turn around and ship Sanchez, Burris and.......Henry Sosa to the Nationals for young slugging 3B Ryan Zimmerman. You could then move Sandoval to 1B and do with Ishikawa as you please. The Zimmerman deal may look a tad out there but when you think of it, it could make sense on a number of levels. The Nationals have no starting pitching (save Scott Olsen) and Sanchez has front of the rotation potential. They also have no heir apparent to SS or 2B which are being currently filled by the likes of Christian Guzman and Ronny Belliard which screams for a pre-mature filming of "That 90's Show" and with Sosa they get a nice young high ceiling arm who could either turn into an ace or turn into a relief ace. One must also remember that Zimmerman just hit arbitration this winter....he's going to cost a pretty penny very soon. 

With all these changes you could have this Lineup: 

1.Winn CF 

2.Renteria SS

3.Zimmerman 3B 

4.Sandoval 1B 

5.Molina C 

6.Lewis LF 

7.Nate Killer Schierholtz RF 

8. Frandsen 2B 

9. Lincy/C.C/Cain/Zito/Lowry or cheap 5th starter

Winter Meetings.........DAY 1

           Well, well, well it's the end of the first day in the winer meetings and shockingly the giants haven't signed another player! (Buh dum dum chh) Cheesy punch lines aside the first day came and went without any earth shattering news, though there was plenty of speculation. According to our friend Andrew Baggarly the Giants touched base with 25 other teams to discuss the avaiability of numerous power hitting position players. Thankfully we have also learned the Giants have never and will never inquire about the avaibility of a Miguel Tejada and Paul Konerko. We have also learned that team after team has inquired about the possibility of Senor Sanchez playing for their team next year. This has made me come to think of the value that Sanchez really has. One could argue he has the upside of a number 2 starter and that his struggles in the 2nd half can largely be attributed to the 106 IP increase from the previous year. 

          This has also convinced me to believe that perhaps it's best to stand pat unless a oppurtunity presents itself. We came into this offseason looking to solidify our bullpen. Check. We came into this offseason looking to get more production out of our SS which was an MLB worst last year. Check We came into this season looking to add a legitimate middle of the order hitter? Not so much...... at the same time I look at it this way in order to add another check to the list we would have to deal from an area of strength , our starting pitching. If we were to trade Jonathan Sanchez our starting pitching would go from good to very mediocre faster than an Eugenio Velez stolen base. If Sanchez were to depart we would have a rotation consisting of Lincecum, Cain, Zito, ?, ?. As you can see the two 4,5 starters would be unknown quantities meaning I have no clue who they would be. Also, where would the acquired slugger play? Presumably 3rd base but thats where Pablo Sandoval looks to be entrenched for at least next season. Move him to 1st base and you never get to see if Travis Ishikawa's resurgence was for real. Can't trade him for an outfielder because we have more outfielders than we already know what to do with which leads me to tomorrows post trade Aaron Rowand..........

Winter Meetings...........EVE

Hello ladies and gentleman, boys and girls I would like to welcome you all to the Winter Meetings Las Vegas edition. This year I expect a flurry of trades and early signing that will blow open the quiet market. This year the most active team thus far has been your very own San Francisco Giants whom have already signed 3 free agents and are actively discussing many other avenues. (Cantu, Blalock, Encarnacion, Hermidia and last but not least C.C Sabathia)

I will go on record and say this will be the most important week of the offseason for the 09 San Francisco Giants and possibly the most important week of Brian Sabean's career becuase, if he flops this year he's gone. The winter meetings are so exciting and important for a variety of reasons. First off if anything substantial is going to happen the remainder of this offseason it will happen here. Though there may be no announced trade or signing the paramters of the deal will be discussed at these meetings. Remember Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain for Alexis Rios anyone?

For once the Giants go into these meetings with an abundance of buzz. Because the Giants have already signed 3 free agents and are discussing many potential trades they will have many eyes upon them come tommorow. I expect the Giants to move swiftly as well I wholeheartedly believe that if Sabean and his posse feel a deal is right senor Sanchez will be pitching in a different zip code come next season. A dealing of Emmanuel Burrris would also not surprise me for a number of reasons. It seems the Giants never saw Burris as the heir apparent to SS and with Frandsen and Velez there who has a very similar tool set Burris is as expendable as ever and his value may never be higher. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking, not becuase I want to see Burris leave the Orange and Black but because I see a fit: The Minnesota Twins are in search of a young cheap SS whom they can control for a very long time. The Giants are looking to hoard talent at practically any position and have stated they would like more power production from their corner OF bats. Delmon Young has been made very avaible by Twins General Manager Bill Smith. With a Minnesota OF that consists of Denard Span, Carlos Gomez and Micheal Cuddyer Twins Manager Rod Gardenhire has made it known that Young, is seemingly the odd man out. What baffles me is that for only being 22 Young has been very productive he has averaged a .292 average with 12 hr and 81 rbi's in his first two seasons and can realistically turn into a .300/.360/.540 30 hr 120 rbi monster in right field. He has more potential than potentially that whole OF save perhaps the speedy Gomez. The most two similar players  through age 22 are Carl Yastremski and Tris Speaker both hall of famers.( I'm not saying Young is going to be a hall of famer I just think it's of note) 

All of this sounds just peachy but before we purchase our trade for Delmon shirts let's take a step back. The Twins are going to ask for more than Burris without a question it would be silly not to but he is a good starting point. Second the Giants have an already crowded OF with Winn, Lewis, Rowand, Roberts and Shierhotlz in the wings. At the same time I believe the Giants will move two of the outfielders potentially if their inquiring about the avaiabillity of the Marlins Jeremy Hermidia. Another problem being is that before we give Delmon the keys to patrol RF at AT&T shouldn't we give Nate ample oppurtunities? Yes, we should given that his upside is considerable to and he has proven he doesn't belong in the minors anymore for two seasons in a row. If it were up to me we would have a Lewis, Winn, Delmon/ Nate OF with the RF taking a seat when their not playing or letting Lewis or Winn catch a breather or take over RF when one establishes themselves. Boys get ready Christmas is finally here. 

My Top 30 (first 20 today)

Here I present You With my Giants Top 30 Prospects and a brief summary of the system I will go over the list player by player tomorrow. 

NOTE: I would change Fairley to number 10 and Rodriguez to 12 also I'll give my thoughts on the system as a whole tomorrow along with the final 10 i need my sleep..........any thoughts, questions or comments?Fire away 

KEY: $=high ceiling (good regular or better 1/2 starter) , &=low ceiling (utility player 4/5 starter) *=polished (close to majors) , ^=Raw(far from majors)  

TOP 30

#1 Madison Bumgarner- LHP $ ace potential sounds like a wet dream throws 92-97 plus slider average change struck out 164 k's in 141.1 innings with a 1.46 era

#2 Buster Posey- C $* all star catcher potential highly athletic C who moved off of SS well above average arm also used to pitch could be russel martin 2nd best C in minors

#3 Tim Alderson-Rhp$*  2 starter potential throws plus curve and fastball shaky changeup sits 90-93 but his 6'7 220 frame makes one think he could add some oomph to the fastball very projectable still

#4 Angel Villanona-1b$^  perrenial all star potential hit most home runs on low a team as 17 year old has prodgious power could realistically be .280/.370/.500 35-40 hr 100 rbi

#5 Nick Noonan -2b $^ above average 2b think .280/.360/.425 12 hr 60 rbi's 20 sb's

#6 Connor Gillapsie-3b/2b * not going to say high ceiling, but can be a Bill Mueller type may have to move off of thirs becuase of erratic arm

#7 Travis Ishikawa-1b^ could expect line of .265/.335/.465 20 hr 70 rbi great defender at 1b I believe should be handed the keys next year ultimate potential is maybe .280 25 hr 80 rbi's but thats a very big if

 #8Henry Sosa-RHP$^ Merkin Valdez's evil brother  has high injury risk, could be dominant 2 throws absolute gas 93-95 with a lollipop curve average slider and feel 

for change but can't stay healthy

#9 Roger Kieshenck-RF$^ a college player but still very raw has potential for 30 bombs but also 150 k's runs well has good arm. Led Hawaiin Winter league in Home Runs and...........strikeouts 

#10Rafeal Rodriguez-RF$^ definition of raw but talented has been compared to young vlad signed for 2.1 mill. Scouts question his ability to hit for average due to long swing again extremely raw but may have more potential than Angel V becuase he can play a sound rf

#11Kevin Pucetas-RHP & throws high 80's to low 90's has average pitches fastball curve changewith decent movement and control can be number 4 if things break right for him

#12 Wendell Fairley-CF$^ Where do I start? more tools than Home Depot and also my facebook friend. Center fielder drafted out of high school with plus tools across the board 5 tooler but lacks "skills" or polish at this point. May have been drafted in top 10 if not for inicident where he hazed a freshman baseball player. Jim Callis of BA has said that he could be a middle of the lineup gold glove center fielder. Also had college football scholarships from top Universities to play wide reciever so much talent it's ridiculous.   

#13 Brandon Crawford SS$^ comes from major college baseball program but still had significant problems with making consistent contact but when he did he showed plus power and has good bat speed. A good athlete he shouldn't have a problem staying at short could be .260 20 hr 70 rbi 12 sbs

#14 Aaron King LHP$^ Think Jonathan Sanchez! throws low 90's and can reach back and hit mid 90's when the ladies are around throws promising curve and a rough change. Drafted in the 7th round this year out of a JUCO went un-drafted out of high school previous year which is an oddity for someone to improve that much. Has 1st round tools but little known track record due to recent emergence as a prospect my personal favorite/sleeper!

#15 Thomas Neal OF$^ probably to high for most fans taste but I'm a big fan of the burly outfielder, had a lot of hype after singing as a draft and follow in 2005 but has been injured often but still just turned 20. Has strong arm, doesn't run as well as he used to and has plus power. 2nd on the Greenjackets in home runs this year expect a breakout next year as he goes to the California league.

#16 Jesse English LHP^(Not high enough ceiling to justify ranking of a $ but still considerable if he regains stuff this year will be a $) Lefty with a very interesting background, same draft class as Matt Cain and actually outshined and outperformned Cain in the arizona league used to throw mid 90's with plus slider feel for a change. Conditioning became an issue and he was never fully healthy until this season. Throws low 90's gas with average slider curve and a plus changeup. succesful do to plus control but, if he regains stuff he can become a force to be reckoned with again. 

#17 Ehire Adrianzia SS$^($due to defense) young 19 year old dominican SS with great defensive skills plus range arm and instincts but is currently lagging behind though. Came over to the U.S this year and hit .286/.382/.482 .............sounds great! but in only 66 ab's an eye to keep on in the future will never develop much power but may hit 10 hr's one day

#18 Clayton Tanner* Lefty who doesn't go anything great bu also does nothing poorly resembles Noah Lowry in many ways due to average pitches across the board besides plus change and gets by on pitchability (studying hitters, pitches to contact ect) 

#19 Joey Marinez RHP &* Drafted out of Boston College in 05 Martinez is the younger version of Steve Trachsel unfortunatley has absolutely no above average pitches but has amazing control and is a groundball specialist has done great at every level of minor league baseball and will get a shot somewhere but probably not with the Giants. Watched him pitch in 07 and he looked like a 5th starter or short reliever at best 

#20 Charlie Culberson^ (could be a starter or utility player as ceiling, ceiling undefined) very raw very rough, when THE G-MEN made Culberson a first round pick in 07 many were surprised due to the fact that he was seen as a slight overdraft but he rewarded them after signing and hit .282 in rookie ball. Oh the difference a year makes, Culberson stuggled mightily this year offesnsively and defensively at low A Augusta before being sidlined for the year with a broken wrist, true it was his first exposure to full season ball but at the same time it's disheartening to see a stepback from a talented youngster I could see him being a utility player at this point along the lines of Ramon Martinez